Introduction
By Jas Bains, Hafod Chief Executive
Housing is a persistent, complex issue that requires a systemic response. However, most resources focus on supply-side solutions, often overlooking broader impacts on adult care, childcare, employment, social connection, and wellbeing. While governments frequently cover housing costs, escalating demand and spiralling costs place these systems under significant strain.
Increasingly, policymakers, governments, and experts are exploring alternatives to the conventional “build more homes” approach. Data analyst John Burn-Murdoch projects that 2024 marks a peak in global population growth, followed by declines in birth rates across continents. The reasons are varied: widening gaps between public spending and tax revenue (projected to rise in the UK from 38% to 49% over two generations), delayed parenthood, prohibitive childcare costs, and a growing population reliant on caregiving as they age. These demographic shifts pose challenges, especially for lower-income households and middle- to high-income earners alike. The ratio of retirees to working adults has shifted from 1:4 to 1:3, potentially reaching 1:1 in line with trends observed in Japan. Countries like Canada and Hungary have implemented incentives, with Hungary allocating 5% of its GDP to address these issues, yet the outcomes have been limited. Building more homes may be a partial solution, but its impact remains constrained without a broader systemic perspective.
Key domains—housing, health, care, and education—require re-conception as interconnected priorities, demanding coordinated intervention across government agencies and budgets. Although the housing sector has yet to fully articulate such a vision, there are promising signs, with the UK Government emphasising prevention, reallocating resources to community services, and shifting towards multi-year funding with a focus on mission-driven goals.
According to Martin Hajer’s model, traditional institutions face three core deficits: legitimacy, delivery capability, and adaptability. Once, these applied primarily to governments, local authorities, and corporations; however, they now increasingly apply to housing associations. Although housing associations do not operate in a highly competitive environment, enjoying a symbiotic relationship with the state, this does not guarantee perpetual relevance. To stay at the forefront, housing associations must be prepared to deliver coordinated services, as others may step in to fill these roles if they fail to adapt.
Additionally, the Centre for Social Analysis at the London School of Economics (CASE) argues that new housing alone does little to address inequality and can exacerbate environmental challenges, with housing accounting for 17% of the UK's CO2 emissions. Concerns over carbon budgets, labour shortages, and material costs further complicate the situation.
As John Turner, the American writer and activist, stated in his seminal 1970s pamphlet “Housing as a Verb”: housing’s importance lies not in what it is, but in what it does for people—a sentiment that is more relevant than ever today.